Saturday Aug 1
LABOROther

Fed Study Finds No AI Productivity Bump

1AUG
WHERE DID IT GONO BUMPSHRINKS

AI's productivity payoff may be invisible, not absent. St. Louis Fed researchers scanned 490,000 earnings calls and found no AI productivity bump. AI may make output too cheap to count as a gain.

Economists tagged AI mentions across 490,000 calls from 2000 to 2025. Ninety-five percent of the claims describe future gains, not ones already booked.

Researcher Serdar Ozkan says AI may be destroying the value of what it makes abundant, so gains cancel against falling prices. He compares it to electrification, which took decades to reorganize factories before paying off.

Firms talking up AI have also raised R&D and capex spending, not just their language. Nobody yet knows which use case will make the gains show up in the numbers.

full brief & sources

⚡ Why this matters

  • Directly tests the biggest open question in enterprise AI spend: is it actually working?
  • Offers a real explanation for why AI ROI still looks thin in the official numbers.
  • Matches other 2026 Fed research finding gains concentrated in a few industries, not broad-based.

🔍 What happened

  • St. Louis Fed economists scanned roughly 490,000 earnings calls from 5,198 public companies.
  • AI's share of productivity commentary rose from near zero before ChatGPT to about 15% by late 2025.
  • 95% of AI productivity claims describe expected future gains, not gains already realized.
  • When executives do describe AI's effect, 95% call it positive, versus 75% for non-AI topics.
  • Researcher Serdar Ozkan says AI's abundance effect may cancel real gains against falling prices.
  • Firms talking up AI have also raised R&D and capex spending, not just their language.

💬 Smart takes

  • Serdar Ozkan, St. Louis Fed: "Some things are going to become more abundant. That means they're also going to become probably less valuable."
  • Aakash Kalyani, St. Louis Fed: the profession trusts what firms do, not what they say, and the actions now match the optimistic talk.
  • Skeptic: a theory that explains away every disappointing data point is hard to disprove and easy to lean on indefinitely.

🧭 Where this goes

  1. Likely2027 earnings calls show an even higher share of AI productivity commentary.
  2. Likelyofficial productivity data stays flat through next year regardless of AI capex levels.
  3. Possibleone specific AI use case breaks out and shows up clearly in sector-level data first.
  4. Wild Cardeconomists later revise history and credit 2026 as the actual inflection point, missed in real time.

🥄 The Spoon Take

Every CFO says AI is paying off, and the data says otherwise. Both can be true if AI's biggest trick is making things too cheap to count as gains. That's not proof AI is a bust. It's proof the scoreboard might be broken.

🤔 Pushback

This theory is unfalsifiable in the short run. Any flat productivity number can be waved away as invisible abundance.

·Fortune - Fed AI productivity study·St. Louis Fed - AI productivity research·Kansas City Fed - Productivity chapter
Sunday Jul 12
LABOROther

Fed Taps Andreessen For AI Jobs Panel

9JUL
OUTSIDERSEAT

A venture capitalist just joined the Fed's inner circle. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh tapped Marc Andreessen to co-lead a new AI jobs task force. It's Silicon Valley's first seat at that table.

Andreessen co-leads the Productivity and Jobs task force with two others.

His co-leads: Stanford economist Charles Jones, on leave at Anthropic, and Microsoft's Asha Sharma.

The task force's job: assess how AI changes productivity and jobs for Fed policy.

It's one of five external panels reviewing US monetary policy this year.

Recommendations are due by the end of 2026.

A leading AI investor now helps shape how the Fed thinks about AI and inflation.

That's a new kind of access for venture capital.

full brief & sources

⚡ Why this matters

  • This is the first time a venture capitalist gets a formal seat inside the Fed's policy process.
  • The task force's findings could shape how the Fed reads AI's effect on inflation and employment.
  • It signals the Fed sees AI as decision-relevant for monetary policy, not just a side topic.

🔍 What happened

  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced five external task forces on July 9 for a broad monetary policy review.
  • Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz, co-leads the Productivity and Jobs task force.
  • His co-leads are Charles Jones, a Stanford economist currently on leave at Anthropic, and Asha Sharma, Microsoft EVP and Xbox CEO.
  • The task force's mandate: assess the economic impact of AI and other general-purpose technologies on Fed policy judgments.
  • Recommendations are expected by the end of 2026.

💬 Smart takes

  • Washington Post: the Fed is enlisting Andreessen to advise directly on AI under Chair Warsh.
  • The Decoder: the real question is whether AI can help tame inflation, and the Fed wants an investor's read on that.
  • Skeptic: Andreessen has a massive financial stake in AI staying hyped. A venture capitalist advising on AI's economic impact is not a neutral voice.

🧭 Where this goes

  1. Likelythe task force's year-end report leans toward AI boosting measured productivity.
  2. PossibleAndreessen's involvement draws criticism over conflict of interest given a16z's AI portfolio.
  3. Possibleother regulators follow with their own AI-industry advisory seats.
  4. Wild Cardthe task force's findings directly shape a Fed rate decision citing AI-driven productivity.

🥄 The Spoon Take

Central banks don't usually hand policy seats to venture capitalists. Doing it for AI is the clearest sign yet that the Fed thinks this technology is now macroeconomically relevant, not just a tech-sector story. Whoever writes the Fed's AI narrative shapes how every other institution reads it.

🤔 Pushback

Andreessen's a16z has billions riding on AI adoption staying strong. A task force conclusion that AI boosts productivity serves his portfolio as much as it serves policy.

·Washington Post - Fed enlists Andreessen·The Decoder - AI and inflation angle·Let's Data Science - Task force lineup
Thursday Jul 9
LABOROther

Lenny's Survey Finds A Split Workforce

7JUL
AMPLIFIEDBURNED OUT

Half the industry feels sharper thanks to AI. The other half is quietly cracking under the pace. Rachitsky's new survey pegs burnout up 11 points, with four in ten now nervous about their job.

Lenny Rachitsky published his newest read on how engineers and PMs are doing on July 7, describing it as a workforce fork rather than a single trend line.

One cohort reports feeling sharper and more capable than ever. The second cohort is exhausted: the year-over-year jump was 11 points, and roughly 40% now worry about their seat.

This isn't the 'robots take jobs' framing from last year. It's a widening gap inside the same org chart, same tooling, same manager.

full brief & sources

⚡ Why this matters

  • Splits the "AI helps everyone" narrative into a real gap between amplified and anxious workers.
  • Burnout data comes from a large, named operator survey, not an anonymous poll.
  • Job-loss fear at 40% inside tech is a hiring and retention problem, not just a headline.

🔍 What happened

  • Lenny Rachitsky published the survey on Lenny's Newsletter on July 7, 2026.
  • Framed as "a tale of two workforces" inside the same industry.
  • One half reports feeling more capable, confident, and excited than at any prior point in their career.
  • Overall burnout rose 11 points year over year across respondents.
  • 4 in 10 respondents say they're worried about losing their job.
  • The split tracks how much AI tooling a worker's own team adopted, not just company size.

💬 Smart takes

  • Lenny Rachitsky: frames it as two workforces living inside the same companies, not two different industries.
  • Skeptic: self-selected newsletter surveys skew toward engaged subscribers, so the real burnout number industry-wide could be higher or lower.

🧭 Where this goes

  1. Likelymore PM and engineering leadership content addresses burnout as a direct AI-adoption side effect this year.
  2. Likelycompanies start splitting AI-adoption support by team, not rolling out one blanket policy.
  3. Possiblea named tech employer publishes internal burnout data to counter the narrative.
  4. Wild Cardburnout becomes a bigger 2026 exit-interview theme than compensation for the first time.

🥄 The Spoon Take

Every AI-adoption chart shows an average going up. Averages hide the fact that half the room is thriving and half is drowning. If you manage people, the real question isn't "are we using AI enough" - it's "which half is my team in."

🤔 Pushback

A newsletter survey selects for people who already read a product newsletter obsessively, which probably overrepresents both the most AI-enthusiastic and the most online-anxious workers.

·Lenny's Newsletter - Tale of two workforces·Fortune - UC Berkeley: AI having opposite effect on workforce·Harvard Business Review - AI intensifies work, doesn't reduce it
Tuesday Jul 7
LABOROther

The AI Backlash Now Has The Numbers

1JUL
LAID OFFPRICES UP

The anti-AI backlash just stopped being a feeling. Platformer's Casey Newton rounds up new data on jobs, prices, and anger. Junior hiring in exposed fields is shrinking while AI-driven chip shortages push prices up.

The AI backlash used to run on vibes. Now it runs on numbers too.

Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson tracked 4.6 million workers across 730 jobs. Employment for 22-to-25-year-olds in AI-exposed roles is shrinking 3.8% a year. Meanwhile a chip shortage tied to AI demand pushed software prices up 15%.

Apple raised MacBook and iPad prices up to 25% this year. Data-center opposition has already delayed $130 billion in projects.

full brief & sources

⚡ Why this matters

  • The 'AI helps everyone' narrative just met hard numbers on who it's hurting first.
  • Entry-level hiring is the canary. If junior roles keep shrinking, it reshapes career ladders industry-wide.
  • Rising hardware prices from AI-driven chip demand hit consumers who see none of AI's upside.

🔍 What happened

  • Stanford's Erik Brynjolfsson: 22-25-year-olds in AI-exposed jobs shrinking 3.8% a year.
  • Overall AI-exposed jobs down 0.2% year over year; least-exposed jobs up 0.1%.
  • Data Center Watch: 75 US data-center projects worth $130B delayed or blocked in Q1.
  • Opposition groups doubled to 833 across 49 states.
  • AI-driven memory chip shortage pushed software and accessory prices up 15%.
  • Apple raised MacBook and iPad prices as much as 25%; Xbox and Steam Machine also went up.

💬 Smart takes

  • Casey Newton, Platformer: the externalities are growing faster than the industry's plans to address them.
  • Sam Altman, OpenAI: called for an IAEA-style international body to govern AI, in a Financial Times op-ed.
  • Skeptic: unemployment overall is still just 4.3%, and layoffs often have causes beyond AI that get lumped in as 'AI washing.'

🧭 Where this goes

  1. Likelyentry-level hiring in exposed fields keeps shrinking through 2027.
  2. Likelyhardware prices stay elevated through 2027 as the memory shortage persists.
  3. Possibledata-center opposition becomes a real factor in the 2026 midterm races.
  4. Wild Carda labor-market shock forces a federal response, like wage insurance for AI-displaced workers.

🥄 The Spoon Take

AI's costs are landing on ordinary people before its benefits do. Junior workers lose job openings. Everyone pays more for a laptop. The industry's pitch is still selling cures and abundance. The gap between the pitch and the invoice is where the backlash lives.

🤔 Pushback

Correlation isn't causation here. Layoffs get blamed on AI for stock-market reasons long before AI actually replaces the work.

·Platformer - AI backlash breakdown·Fortune - Entry-level AI job impact·NBC News - Data center opposition study
Sunday Jul 5
LABOROther

Klarna Cuts 700 Reps, Deploys AI

5JUL
REPLACEDLAID OFFBOT ON DUTY

The fintech laid off 700 customer support workers this quarter. Its AI agent now handles 92 percent of tickets. Human roles moved to escalation-only work.

Klarna is the loudest voice in a growing pattern. Companies with high-volume support are running the same math: AI at 90 percent coverage plus humans on the edges only.

The catch is the last 8 percent. Someone still has to handle weird refunds, angry customers, edge cases. That is who is left.

Wall Street likes the margin story. LinkedIn feeds do not. Both reactions are correct — this is the labor shift landing hard, one company at a time.

full brief & sources

⚡ Why this matters

  • Concrete headcount cut tied to an explicit AI-agent replacement rate — no hedging
  • Signals the labor pattern for the whole customer-support sector, not just Klarna
  • Reframes 'AI-caused layoffs' from a forecast to a line item

🔍 What happened

  • 700 customer support roles eliminated in Klarna's Q2 restructuring
  • AI agent (built on OpenAI + internal models) resolves 92% of inbound tickets
  • Remaining human roles are consolidated into escalation, dispute resolution, and compliance
  • CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski publicly credited the agent for the workforce reduction
  • Klarna's operating margin projected to expand 4-5 points annually as a result

💬 Smart takes

  • Sebastian Siemiatkowski (Klarna CEO): 'AI can already do all of the jobs that we as humans do.'
  • Skeptic read: the 92% rate depends on how you count tickets. Simple routing counts. Complex disputes don't.
  • Labor economist read: support roles have historically been a first-rung job for immigrants and career switchers. Removing them concentrates income inequality.

🧭 Where this goes

  1. LikelyBNPL and fintech competitors match within two quarters
  2. Likelytelco and utility companies (huge support volumes) follow by end of year
  3. PossibleUS and EU labor regulators require disclosure of AI-driven layoffs
  4. Wild Carda high-profile Klarna customer-service failure prompts a partial reversal

🥄 The Spoon Take

This is the layoff pattern crystallized. When one BNPL fires 700 and improves margins, every competitor's CFO gets asked the same question next quarter. The floor is dropping faster than the retraining ceiling is rising.

🤔 Pushback

Klarna is a high-signal outlier — support-heavy business with margin pressure. Not every company can replicate 92% ticket coverage without visible product damage.

·Klarna Q2 2026 restructuring announcement