Sunday Jul 5
FUNDINGOpenAI

OpenAI May Wait On Its IPO

5JUL
2026 PLANOPENAI WAITS

OpenAI filed to go public. Now it might wait. Advisers to CEO Sam Altman reportedly see SpaceX's rocky debut as a bad omen. Anthropic, which filed later, could end up going public first.

SpaceX opened at $150, spiked to $225, and slid back to around $156 within two weeks of its IPO. That swing is reportedly spooking OpenAI's advisers.

OpenAI filed confidentially in June, aiming for a September debut near a $1 trillion valuation. A delay to 2027 would flip that plan.

OpenAI lost about $21 billion last year against $13 billion in revenue. That math gets more public scrutiny the longer the company waits.

full brief & sources

⚡ Why this matters

  • A delayed OpenAI IPO could hand Anthropic the symbolic 'first AI lab public' milestone.
  • It signals real nerves about how public markets price AI spending versus AI profit.
  • Timing here sets the comp for every other AI IPO waiting in line.

🔍 What happened

  • The New York Times reported Altman's advisers are citing SpaceX's volatile debut as a warning sign.
  • OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO in early June, targeting September 2026.
  • Cerebras, another recent AI IPO, has also stayed volatile since its debut.
  • OpenAI's 2025 operating loss was near $21 billion on about $13 billion in revenue.
  • Anthropic filed its own confidential S-1 on June 1, ahead of OpenAI's filing.

💬 Smart takes

  • Motley Fool analysis: OpenAI is trying to avoid SpaceX's volatility, and will probably not succeed, since large IPOs are volatile almost by nature.
  • Skeptic: Jefferies data shows big IPOs average 26.5% first-week gains but only 3.5% after a year, so timing the market rarely works out as planned.

🧭 Where this goes

  1. PossibleOpenAI pushes its debut into 2027, letting Anthropic go public first.
  2. PossibleOpenAI proceeds on the original September timeline despite the internal debate.
  3. Wild Cardboth labs delay, and a smaller AI company ends up as the first pure-play frontier lab to trade publicly.
  4. Likelywhichever lab goes first sets the valuation multiple every other AI IPO gets measured against.

🥄 The Spoon Take

Being first to file isn't the same as being first to ring the bell. If OpenAI waits, Anthropic inherits a symbolic win it didn't even have to fight for. Markets reward whoever proves the AI-spending story works, not whoever files first.

🤔 Pushback

This is one report citing unnamed advisers. OpenAI could still list in September and this delay chatter fades by next week.

·Motley Fool - OpenAI 2027 IPO report·TheStreet - $1T valuation holdout·Fortune - Anthropic files confidential S-1 first