Sunday Jun 28

Gemini Deep Think Tops The Benchmarks

22JUN
BENCHEDGEMINI WINSANTHROPIC

Google grabbed the top score while Anthropic's best models sit benched. Gemini 2.5 Deep Think beat GPT-5.5 and Fable 5 on graduate-level science. Timing is everything.

Deep Think uses parallel reasoning, running many thought paths at once. It scored 82.4% on GPQA Diamond, a hard science test. That beats GPT-5.5 and the suspended Fable 5.

The win lands while US export rules keep Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos offline. Google has a clear lane to claim the lead.

It is live for AI Ultra subscribers, with API access soon. Benchmarks are not products. But mindshare moves on leaderboard wins.

full brief & sources

Why this matters

  • Google takes the benchmark crown as its top rival sits benched.
  • Leaderboard wins still drive enterprise mindshare and developer pull.
  • Parallel reasoning shows the frontier moving to test-time compute.

🔍 What happened

  • Google launched Gemini 2.5 Pro with Deep Think on June 22.
  • Scored 82.4% on GPQA Diamond and 89.8% on MMLU-Pro.
  • Beat GPT-5.5 at 76.3% and Anthropic's Fable 5 at 79.1%.
  • Fable 5 is offline under a US government export order.
  • Live now for AI Ultra subscribers; API access coming soon.

💬 Smart takes

  • Google: Deep Think uses parallel thinking for harder reasoning.
  • Context: Fable 5's score predates its government suspension.
  • Skeptic: a few points on one benchmark rarely changes what teams ship.

🧭 Where this goes

  1. LikelyGoogle leans on the lead to win AI Ultra and Cloud deals.
  2. LikelyOpenAI answers with a Deep-Think-style reasoning push.
  3. PossibleAnthropic's export limits cost it real enterprise momentum.
  4. Possiblethe lead evaporates the moment a rival posts a higher number.
  5. Wild Cardtest-time compute pricing reshapes how labs charge for hard tasks.

🥄 The Spoon Take

The score matters less than the timing. With Anthropic's best models frozen by export rules, Google has an open lane and is taking it. Benchmarks are noisy and short-lived. But when your strongest rival cannot ship, even a small lead buys outsized mindshare. Regulation just handed Google a window.

🤔 Pushback

GPQA leads are fragile and rarely survive a month, and Fable 5's frozen score may understate Anthropic's real position.