Sunday Jun 14
STRATEGYAnthropic

Anthropic And OpenAI Count Revenue Differently

14JUN
GROSS VS NETANTHROPICOPENAI

Same business, different math. Anthropic books gross revenue. OpenAI books net, after paying Microsoft. The gap is about $8 billion, and the SEC may force them to match before either goes public.

Anthropic counts the full amount customers pay, then routes part to AWS and Google. It says it is the principal in the deal.

OpenAI reports only what it keeps after paying Microsoft. Both methods are legal under US accounting rules. The headline numbers are not comparable.

Bank of America pegs Anthropic's cloud payments at up to $6.4 billion in 2026. If the SEC forces one method, a revenue number could shrink overnight.

full brief & sources

⚡ Why this matters

  • Anthropic and OpenAI both filed confidential S-1s in June. Their headline revenue is not apples-to-apples.
  • Gross-vs-net accounting can swing reported revenue by billions.
  • How the SEC rules sets the comp for every AI lab that lists next.

🔍 What happened

  • Reuters reported the two labs use different revenue recognition methods.
  • Anthropic books gross revenue as the principal in cloud-partner deals.
  • OpenAI reports net revenue after payments to Microsoft.
  • The methodology gap is estimated around $8 billion.
  • Bank of America estimates Anthropic's cloud payments up to $6.4B in 2026.
  • Both treatments are permitted under US GAAP.

💬 Smart takes

  • Anthropic (to Reuters): it books gross revenue because it is the principal; cloud partners are distribution.
  • Ethan Choi, Khosla Ventures: unclear how the SEC lets two firms use different treatments for the same revenue.
  • Skeptic: this is an accounting footnote. Investors price growth and margins, not gross-vs-net labels.

🧭 Where this goes

  1. Likelythe full S-1s force both labs to disclose revenue both ways.
  2. Possiblethe SEC pushes harmonized treatment before either lists.
  3. PossibleAnthropic's headline revenue gets restated lower under net rules.
  4. Wild Cardthe accounting dispute delays one of the two IPOs into 2027.

🥄 The Spoon Take

Revenue is supposed to be the one number you can trust. In AI right now, it depends on who is counting. Before you compare Anthropic's $44 billion to OpenAI's $20 billion, ask whether they are measuring the same thing. Often they are not.

🤔 Pushback

Public-market investors are sophisticated. They will normalize gross-vs-net in a footnote and price on growth and margins anyway.

·Reuters via TechWire - Revenue dispute·Yahoo Finance - Anthropic vs OpenAI·CNBC - Anthropic tops OpenAI value